The Keirsey Research 2012 Presidential election tracking poll continues to show a consistent gap when comparing the preferences of the 4 Temperaments. In a nutshell, if only Guardian men were allowed to vote, Mitt Romney would easily be elected as the next president of the United States. Unfortunately for him, no such restriction exists, and the overwhelming preference of Idealists and Rationals, as well as marked preference of all Artisans and of Guardian women, is Barack Obama. We have sliced and diced the data in many directions this month, with graphs and charts to help explain what is going on, and why Romney faces such an uphill battle to November.
First, a short word about our poll and validity. Since we analyze and present our data with a Temperament stratification, we have received a number of emails from readers questioning our results. These emails usually take the form of, “Your data shows that [ex] Idealist women strongly favor Obama. I’m an Idealist woman, and I am voting for Ron Paul. Your data is wrong!”
To start, this is a poll. It shows that just as there are Guardian men who are planning to vote for Obama, there are Idealist women who are planning to vote for Romney (or Ron Paul). Those are the smaller bars on the charts. The data indicates the preferences of the majority of voters, not that all people of a particular group will vote identically. Our poll is statistically valid to within 1-2% at it’s highest level, ie the entire sample of 1000 US registered voters who are planning on voting in the upcoming election. At the individual temperament / gender level, it is accurate to +/- 5%, as each of these groups is a smaller subset of the 1000. However, since we are running a tracking poll, and the results have been consistent now for 3 months, our confidence level is very high. But back to the individual noting that they are an outlier of the majority of their Temperament group, I will give a specific example – Dave Keirsey and I are both Rational males. We don’t plan on voting for the same candidate. Each of us, in our heart, thinks of the other as an outlier. So it goes. (The fact that everyone in our poll has enough of an interest in self-awareness to spend 10-15 minutes taking the KTS-II may introduce some bias into the poll, but as you will see our representation by political party mirrors the US general population, so we have satisfied ourselves that interest in self awareness is not limited by political belief).
On to the results. The poll was conducted during the first week of July 2012. The sampled participants are representative of the 2010 US Census data by sex, age, and geographical region. Continue reading